Russia’s recent attacks on Ukraine, mainly from the air, have sowed some anxiety in the ranks of our eastern neighbors. Experts wonder whether Moscow is preparing for an even stronger offensive, or maybe it is trying to strengthen its position before possible peace talks. – A large-scale Russian counteroffensive is unlikely – argues Dr. Witold Sokała in an interview with Onet. – However, one of two factors may change the situation – adds the expert.
- According to Dr. Witold Sokała Russia cannot afford to “bring Ukraine to its knees” now
- – Scattered sabotage activities, further terrorist attacks from the air on civilian targets, and some ground actions are much more likely, but at most on a local scale – says the deputy director of the Institute of International Relations and Public Policies of the Jagiellonian University in Kielce.
- The expert argues that Russia has problems with supplies of “manpower” and equipment. Therefore, it relies on imports – mainly from Iran and North Korea
- Dr. Sokała claims that the current situation may be changed by one of two factors. The first is a sudden change in China’s policy. The second is the possible short-sightedness of the West
- – The conclusion about Russia’s current military weakness absolutely does not relieve us of concern for security. On the contrary, he tells One
Dr. Witold Sokała points out that apparently anything can happen in war. But at the same time, he quickly argues that a large-scale Russian counteroffensive, one that could bring Ukraine to its knees, is currently one of the least realistic variants of the situation.
– Scattered sabotage activities are much more likely, both against Ukraine itself and against its allies. Also further terrorist air attacks on civilian targets, intended to undermine the enemy’s morale, strain the infrastructure as much as possible, and provide the Russian society with a substitute for success – says the deputy director of the Institute of International Relations and Public Policies of the Jagiellonian University in Kielce to Onet. – And of course, some ground operations too, but at most on a local scale, in order to engage the Ukrainian reserves and provoke the enemy to use up its potential – he adds.
Russia without reserves of “manpower” and equipment
According to our interlocutor, in order to attempt a breakthrough attack on a strategic or even operational scale, Russia would have to have huge reserves of “manpower” and equipment at its disposal. Meanwhile, in reality – there is none.
– Let’s not fall for the Kremlin propaganda, which some people spread in our country. The facts are that there are fewer and fewer people in Russian society who have not yet been “put in boots” and who are suitable for full-fledged military service. Those who remain drop out either for health reasons, because remember that Russia is a country with one of the record rates of serious diseases and addictions, or for political reasons, because, for example, their influential parents protect them, or for economic reasons, because there is a dramatic shortage of hands in many important sectors of the economy. to work, and often specialists – says the expert.
– Therefore, after using a supply of prisoners and members of mafia militias in previous mobilizations, Moscow is trying to import conscripts, mainly from Asian countries. It tempts with money and citizenship. But the governments of these countries do not want the problems it provokes, internal and external, so they strongly limit this practice, he adds.
“Russia clears warehouses”
In the opinion of Dr. Witold Sokała’s equipment and ammunition supplies are not doing very well in Russia either, despite the loudly announced successes in “putting the economy back on war tracks.”
– The inefficiency of the system, centralized and riddled with nepotism and corruption, is taking revenge. The situation is somewhat saved by cleaning old warehouses dating back to the Cold War. But vintage tanks are ideally suited as stationary defensive firing points, but it is difficult to imagine that a larger-scale offensive operation would be successful with their help, the expert argues.
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– As such, the production of technically simple products, for example ammunition and small arms or light armored vehicles, has actually accelerated. But it is impossible to win a war with an enemy that has access to heavy NATO weapons. And Russia is no longer able to produce modern weapons based on advanced technologies, at least not in the quantities necessary for a massive offensive, he adds.
Russia condemned to imports
That is why the Russian authorities are desperately resorting to imports. According to the deputy director of the Institute of International Relations and Public Policies of the Jagiellonian University in Kielce, almost exclusively the so-called rogue countries, also isolated in the international arena and subject to sanctions, and therefore having nothing to lose.
– This is primarily about Iran, which generously provides Russia with its combat drones, and North Korea, which has provided ballistic missiles and probably large-caliber artillery ammunition – our interlocutor emphasizes.
As Dr. Sokała argues, Russia can offer them political favors in return, because it remains a permanent member of the UN Security Council with veto power, making its own military and space technologies available in better times, and also providing significant intelligence support (there is still undisputed global tycoon).
– In the case of the North Korean regime, probably also economic aid, because even though it is becoming poorer, it can still afford to transport several trains of free grain. Kim’s generals also gain the opportunity to test their new equipment in combat conditions – this is the case of the KN-23 and 25 missiles recently used against Ukraine, as well as to make room in warehouses for new types of ammunition for barrel artillery – he believes.ADVERTISEMENT
“Humbled Power”
Therefore, Dr. Sokała expects further military cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang. However, he argues that although both sides use it, it will probably never be on a scale that will change the operational situation on the front.
– And by the way: the need to use the helping hand of exotic Asian regimes must be terribly humiliating for a country that not so long ago, under the banner of the USSR, competed with the USA for the role of world leader on equal terms, and which in its new incarnation as a Federation Russian has not given up such ambitions, the expert notes.
Two factors that could change the fate of the war
Dr.’s opinion Witold Sokała, the current situation may be changed by one of two factors. The first is a sudden change in China’s policy.
– Beijing is behaving very cautiously today because it probably knows that it is not ready for a full-scale confrontation with the US and its Pacific allies. He also still hopes that he will be able to achieve both the incorporation of Taiwan and other goals in the region using political methods, i.e. “without drawing the sword from the scabbard”, as taught by the great strategy classic, Sun Zi – the expert tells Onet.
– But both of these factors may become obsolete after some time, and then nothing will prevent the Middle Kingdom from providing much stronger support to Russia, both economically and with direct deliveries of military equipment and making its stocks available. This would create a completely new quality on the front almost overnight, he adds.
The second, conceivable factor of change, in the opinion of our interlocutor, is the possible short-sightedness of the West, which will, however, give in to temptation and leave Ukraine to its own fate. This means that it will seriously limit military and financial assistance, as well as stop the pressure on Russia implemented through sanctions.
– This will be the way to the so-called a rotten peace, a temporary suspension of hostilities, and Russia will, without a shadow of a doubt, use this pause to quickly rebuild its potential and, above all, to prepare a plan for offensive operations that will be much better than those carried out recently. And not only against Ukraine, against other European countries too. Let us remember that these do not necessarily have to be open military operations. The Russians have a lot of experience and success in the so-called asymmetric actions. And the destruction of critical infrastructure “under someone else’s flag”, riots and political crises, or problems with managed migration waves may harm us even more than an occasional rocket fire on Warsaw or a demonstrative armored raid on Suwałki – emphasizes Dr. Sokała.
– Therefore, the conclusion about Russia’s current military weakness absolutely does not relieve us from concern for security. On the contrary, he sums up.