Hit it until it hurts. This may be the key to making the war too costly and painful for Vladimir Putin, argues British writer and historian Owen Matthews. The author points out Russia’s weak points. Kiev’s sowing of chaos is within reach. It is enough to increase the frequency of attacks on Russian technical infrastructure. This is a realistic scenario due to the advanced production of combat drones.
Ukraine is currently fighting not one, but actually two wars with Russia. The first of them, conventional bloody fighting along the approximately thousand-kilometer front line, reached a stalemate.
However, the second one – drone and missile attacks, airstrikes, sabotage operations in enemy territory – may turn out to be a game-changing strategy, allowing the Russians to be hit where it hurts the most.
War in Ukraine. Kyiv attacks Russia’s critical infrastructure
Last week, two Ukrainian kamikaze drones carried out a spectacular attack on the Ust – Luga oil and gas terminal near Saint Petersburg .
The impact approximately 1,250 kilometers from Ukraine’s borders weakened Russia’s ability to produce and export naphtha, jet fuel and diesel oil, and to export liquefied natural gas (LNG).
It may take weeks or even months for the refinery and terminal to return to pre-attack production rates. It showed that Ukrainian drones have proven to be more effective in limiting Russian production and trade in hydrocarbons than the previously unsuccessful efforts of Western countries to limit prices and impose an embargo on Russian exports.
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Preserving Russia’s ability to export crude oil and LNG is at the heart of Vladimir Putin’s sanctions circumvention strategy and has so far protected the Russian economy from the effects of Western sanctions.
Even though war currently consumes nearly 40 percent Kremlin state spending, oil and gas revenues are actually higher than before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. This is due to growth in global markets due to the tense situation in the Middle East and as a result of the attack by Yemen’s Houthi fighters on tankers in the Red Sea.
At the same time , China and India , supported by an international fleet of tankers, many of which belong to Greece , maintain the flow of Russian oil and, consequently, the inflow of petrodollars for Putin’s war machine.
A big opportunity for Ukraine. The attack could have disastrous consequences for Russia
Russian oil and gas infrastructure is a tasty morsel for Ukrainians. Pumping stations, LNG terminals and refineries are huge, sprawling industrial facilities where many flammable substances are processed or stored.
To show how sensitive this infrastructure is, it is enough to mention that the only land connection enabling the transport of thousands of tons of crude oil through Siberia to China are two railway lines: the Trans-Siberian and the Baikal – Amur railway.
Their destruction could have disastrous consequences. Another example? The Black Sea oil terminal at Novorossiysk , Russia’s largest export hub, is approximately 200 kilometers as the crow flies from Ukrainian-held territory. It is therefore within striking range of cruise missiles or drones.
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The attack on Ust-Luga is, of course, not the first time Ukrainian forces have struck Russian critical infrastructure. However, it turned out to be the most severe so far due to its economic consequences.
Over the last two weeks, Ukraine has attacked a number of Russian military facilities, including: in the cities of Smolensk and Orel , blew up an explosives factory in Tambov , hit the Pantsir missile production plant in Tula and caused a huge fire in an oil reservoir in the Bryansk Oblast , where 3.1 thousand tons of oil reportedly disappeared.
In turn, just after Christmas, Ukrainian air forces, probably using British-supplied Storm Shadow cruise missiles , destroyed a large Russian landing ship RFS Novocherkassk moored in the port of Feodosia in occupied Crimea .
At the same time, Russia continued to bomb targets in central Kiev, Kharkov and Odessa with massive airstrikes from Iran’s Shahed suicide drones and cruise missiles.
“Hit until it hurts.” A new phase of war like an arcade game
Drone and cruise missile warfare is like an arcade game known as whack-a-mole. Depending on the variant, it involves quickly hitting the appearing colorful heads of animals or people with plastic hammers. In its war version, Ukraine and Russia fight each other using electronic warfare and air defense systems.
When one side develops a new technology or tactic, the other side tries to block or eliminate it. Despite sanctions restricting the import of technologically advanced components – primarily processors – Russia still has a large and efficient military electronics industry.
As proof, let us recall the situation from January, when the Russians managed to disrupt the operation of the GPS system in the Baltic Sea for several hours. However, Russia has one structural weakness that Ukraine does not: its vast and dispersed infrastructure makes it impossible to defend every pipeline, factory and bridge.
Kiev has another advantage: an advanced drone industry organized by private companies and fueled by a highly efficient state financing system. – Work on the development of drones is progressing rapidly, said Hanna Hvozdiar , Deputy Minister of Strategic Industries of Ukraine , last month .
– Ukrainian drones are currently the best in the world … There is a big difference between the budgets of Russians and Ukrainians, so to be successful we need innovation and technology. This is where we are really strong, added the Ukrainian official.
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Ukrainian colonel: We need weapons to deter Russia
So far, drones have had an impact on warfare mainly on the battlefield. They effectively eliminated tanks and soldiers of the Russian occupier. However, the Ust-Luga attack marks a major shift in Ukrainian tactics against Russia.
Regardless of where the line of control over individual territories runs, when the guns of war finally fall silent, Ukraine’s long-term security will depend on its ability to quickly respond to Russian aggression. This means increasing the production of cruise missiles and increasing work on long-range drones.
– Long-range missiles that can be used against facilities of the Russian defense industry and economic infrastructure are of key importance, says SBU Colonel Roman Kostenko , secretary of the National Security, Defense and Intelligence Committee of the Verkhovna Rada.
– We need weapons to deter Russia. They need to know that we will be able to respond decisively. This will be our response to their nuclear weapons, he adds.
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Ukraine’s goal? Make the war too expensive for Putin
Long-range missiles and combat drones will allow Ukraine to free itself from its current almost complete dependence on Western-supplied weapons – especially since there is still a clear taboo on using them on Russian territory for fear of escalating the war.
– Only such an independent strategic deterrent ability can ensure our security – assures Kostenko.
There is no reason why Ukraine, with investment and technical support, could not create such a deterrent. It was two Ukrainian-made R-360 Neptun anti-ship missiles – probably enriched with US-supplied advanced missile avionics – that destroyed the Russian cruiser Moskva in April 2022.
It is attacks on key infrastructure that will really hurt Russia , not endless war on a long front line. Many Russian soldiers die in battles, but it doesn’t matter to Putin and his entourage because he sees them as cannon fodder.
The attack on Ust-Luga is exactly the type of asymmetric war in which Ukraine has the advantage. This could be the key to making the conflict too costly and painful for Putin.
